1. 2008 Financial Crisis. The first warning came in 2006 when housing prices started falling and mortgage defaults began rising.
2. Debt in the world economy, as a share of GDP, amounted to 138%, compared with 115% at the end of 2007. For advanced economies, that ratio averaged 195% last year, compared with 183% at the end of 2007.
3. Credit-to-GDP Gap Breaches Critical Level :
Anything above 2 to be a strong gap, and anything above 10 to be a critical warning. Breaching 10 results in a banking crisis in two-thirds of economies, within three years.
4. Everyone around you is talking about stocks (or real estate or whatever the fad asset of the day is). And you should really start worrying when the people talking about getting rich in certain areas of the market don’t have a background in finance.
5. When people begin quitting their jobs to day trade or become a mortgage broker.
6. 9/11 Attacks Crisis:
It was due to uncertainty about whether the United States would go to war. The resultant War on Terror added $1.3 trillion to the national debt.
7. Unsustainably low interest rates over a long period have led to a significant imbalance in economies around the world.
8. Once investors believe that other investors are going to run on the bank, they want to run too (because banks typically hold less than 10% of the cash required to pay back all depositors). In the language of game theory, there is a switch from the “good equilibrium” to the “bad equilibrium”.
9. When someone exhibits skepticism about the prospects for stocks and people don’t just disagree with them, but they do so vehemently and tell them they’re an idiot for not understanding things.
10. When you start to see extreme predictions. The example Bernstein gives is how the best-selling investment book in 1999 was Dow 36,000.
2. Debt in the world economy, as a share of GDP, amounted to 138%, compared with 115% at the end of 2007. For advanced economies, that ratio averaged 195% last year, compared with 183% at the end of 2007.
3. Credit-to-GDP Gap Breaches Critical Level :
Anything above 2 to be a strong gap, and anything above 10 to be a critical warning. Breaching 10 results in a banking crisis in two-thirds of economies, within three years.
4. Everyone around you is talking about stocks (or real estate or whatever the fad asset of the day is). And you should really start worrying when the people talking about getting rich in certain areas of the market don’t have a background in finance.
5. When people begin quitting their jobs to day trade or become a mortgage broker.
6. 9/11 Attacks Crisis:
It was due to uncertainty about whether the United States would go to war. The resultant War on Terror added $1.3 trillion to the national debt.
7. Unsustainably low interest rates over a long period have led to a significant imbalance in economies around the world.
8. Once investors believe that other investors are going to run on the bank, they want to run too (because banks typically hold less than 10% of the cash required to pay back all depositors). In the language of game theory, there is a switch from the “good equilibrium” to the “bad equilibrium”.
9. When someone exhibits skepticism about the prospects for stocks and people don’t just disagree with them, but they do so vehemently and tell them they’re an idiot for not understanding things.
10. When you start to see extreme predictions. The example Bernstein gives is how the best-selling investment book in 1999 was Dow 36,000.
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